|
by Laser Quasar Absolutely
(Now that's a real pseudonym!)
LAST TIME WE SPECULATED ABOUT THE NETWORK OF THE FUTURE
-- terabit-per-second and even exobit-per-second access to
the Internet. And although that's likely to arrive sooner
than we think, there's also the other side of the Moore's
Law coin: processors capable of enormously faster computing
-- not just millions but billions of times faster --
than our present ones.
This sort of quantum leap in processors is likely
to be a result of -- what else? -- Quantum Mechanics. According
to MIT scientists Neil Gershenfeld and Isaac L. Chuang writing
in Scientific
American,a quantum computer is likely to be, quite
literally, billions of times faster than even the fastest
supercomputers of today.
As a related article in The
Economistpoints out:
A classical computer is little more than a
speeded-up abacus. It stores and shuffles binary numbers,
"bits". By contrast, the switches in a quantum computer
would be far tinier, and thus able (thanks to the strange
rules of quantum theory) to be both "on" and "off" simultaneously.
Each switch (known in this context as a "qubit") could then,
in effect, be doing two calculations at once. Two qubits
could thus do four things at once, three qubits could do
eight, and so on. A quantum computer with fairly few components
could therefore crack vast problems that a classical computer
could not solve before the end of time.
And not only that, but quantum computers of the future would
most likely be made not out of solids, but out of liquids: according
to the experts, caffeine is a most promising candidate for a
quantum CPU. (We knew all along that cola and coffee were
the best things around for computing, what?) How
long before we see such moist devices? Perhaps not too long.
As Gershenfeld and Chuang write:
It turns out that filling a test tube with
a liquid made up of appropriate molecules--that is, using
a huge number of individual quantum computers instead of
just one--neatly addresses [some of] the problems of [creating
such computers] ... In fact, chemists, who have used NMR
for decades to study complicated molecules, have been doing
quantum computing all along without realizing it.
So just think ahead: say, fifteen years. The very first Mac,
made about fifteen years ago, had a 512-kB memory and a floppy
drive; the iMac is a gazillion times more powerful. The qMac
(as we may call it) debuting in about fifteen years' time will
be at least a gazillion times more powerful than today's iMac,
if not even more. Of course I haven't
been to the future and neither have you, so we don't know
for sure what it'll be like, but let's speculate wildly for
a moment, shall we? What's the harm.
For starters, what'll the qMac look like?
If you ask me, I think it'll look much like a soft-cover
(or, if you prefer, hard cover) paper notebook. It'll have
a number of pages, and you'll be able to add or take away
as many pages as you want. Each page will be an ultra-high-resolution
-- say, 2400 dpi -- flat panel screen, capable of displaying
anything you want in excruciating detail: text, pictures,
movies, maybe even 3D or holographic images if that sort of
technology becomes available by then, which is more than likely.
If you want to view pages larger than the book's own size,
centerfolds will also be available, with zoom factor built
in. ("Think Playboy".)
Next time you flip through a high-class glossy magazine, just
imagine it's your latest 450-exoHertz pride and joy, and you'll
know just what I mean. {Maybe a monogrammed soft leather
binding, though, to personalise your notebook and give it a
touch of class, wouldn't be a bad idea.} That
sort of quantum notebook -- now that will be a notebook
to end all notebooks, won't it? -- will be permanently and
wirelessly hooked up to the Internet at exobits (billions
of gigabits) per second, and, like New York, will never sleep.
A pen -- any pen, preferably one without ink -- will be the
pointing device as well as the keyboard replacement. At a
pinch, you'll even be able to use your finger to write, and
the book will translate it all into beautifully formatted
printing, thereby rendering all printers obsolete. (Good
thing Apple's getting out of the printer business, what?)
Of course for those who want to do it the old fashioned way,
keyboards and mice will be available as "plug-ins": but who'd
want to lug them around?
And naturally, you'll be able to whisper sweet nothings
into your notebook's ear too, even when it's closed, and have
your words magically appear as text on the page of your choice.
And if you want, you'll send it all off by e-mail. Not to
mention as voice mail, if that's your preference. And of course
the notebook will also double as your wireless speakerphone.
A tiny swivelling lens at one end of the notebook's
spine will "see" what you want it to see, so videoconferencing
will be built-in. And the page you're looking at will also
vibrate to create high fidelity sound, so you can listen to
music when in the mood. Other sensors in the spine will sample
the air and tell you what's rotten in the fridge, or which
way the rose garden is. It may even be designed to sense human
pheromones, with predictable results.
Some people have gone so far as to suggest hard-wiring the CPU
to your brain -- maybe by drinking it? -- but I think
that's taking things a bit too far: I mean, you wouldn't want
to be bombarded incessantly with blinking banner ads in your
head, would you? (Talk about being stoned right out of your
mind.) As far as software is concerned, this
notebook will have none, other than the OS. All the other
software you'll ever need will reside on the Internet. You
won't even need to file your stuff: if you can find any document
in the entire world -- let alone any document you have personally
created -- in less than a flash, why bother with files and
folders? (Talk about a Better Finder.)
Storage will be somewhere else: why keep your stuff in your
book? If you misplace it, it could all be lost. Have a black
box securely bolted down in your basement -- but also hooked
up permanently to the Internet -- where all your stuff will
be stored. Purely technically speaking, though,
that shouldn't be necessary; everything you've ever created
could all be stored in a tiny corner of the notebook itself.
After all, as Nobel Laureate Richard Feynman proved conclusively
almost fifty years ago in his article Plenty
of Room at the Bottom, " it turns out that all
of the information that man has carefully accumulated in all
the books in the world can be written in a cube of material
one two-hundredth of an inch wide -- which is the barest piece
of dust that can be made out by the human eye"!
But all this speculation is the easy part. The 64-gazillion-dollar-adjusted-for-
inflation-question is, What'll we use the qMac for?I
mean, wouldn't using a computer this powerful just for e-mail
be a bit like, well, specially chartering a B2 stealth
bomber just to go get groceries? (Remember, all this is likely
to be with us in less than a single human generation, and our
kids will wonder why we ever put up with modems.) I
don't know about you, but I for one would use such a machine
to amplify my own intelligence, much like I
can use a microscope or a telescope to amplify my eyesight,
or a microphone and speakers to amplify my voice.
I mean, let's say I'm a lawyer by profession. Couldn’t such
a machine help me become a lawyer as good as, or even better
than, Harvard's Alan Dershowitz?
Or let's say I'm a stockbroker. Couldn't such a
machine give me the smarts to make those 64 gazillion dollars
we spoke about earlier?
Over a couple of years of spare time, the qMac could give any
of us an education far better than an Ivy League one (especially
since it wouldn't be accompanied by the concomitant politics!)
-- seeing as how such a notebook would have access to all of
humanity's hard-won knowledge and wisdom right at its fingertips,
plus the processing power to actually make meaningful use of
it all. Buckminster
Fuller once predicted that in the future, everyone would
have an IQ of 200. I'd say, why stop at 200? With qMacs
like these we could easily break the 1,000 mark, and keep
on going.
Wild speculation? Maybe. But then again, is it really?
Just remember, only thirty years ago pocket calculators and
word processors were "wild speculation" too.
... (not his real name -- but you figured that out already,
right?) ... calls himself a "Thinker", especially about the
future. He thinks that's where he'll be spending the rest
of his life (but who's he kidding, eh? Doesn't he realize
it's always going to be now?)
Most people say to him "You can't be serious" -- and they're
right, he can't. (But then, who can be serious about
the future, seeing as how anything can happen in it, and usually
does ... er, will?)
His best book -- indeed his only book -- is entitled The
Seventh Generation, and its shareware version in Adobe
Acrobat format is available for download from his alter-ego's
web site (under construction right now) at http://cpu2308.adsl.bellglobal.com.
It's all about the next 150 years or so, and where technology
might take us in that amount of time. (Just $5.00 -- cheap!
And well worth it, though he says so himself). Check it out.
And send
him e-mail: he loves feedback!
Have a comment on this article? Head the MacReviewZone
Community
Bulletin Board and share it with your fellow Mac users!
Future of the Mac Column
Index
|
